Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
